Spreadsheet people are the adults in the room. But it becomes a cargo cult if you’re missing opportunity because of it.

Enthusiasts are possibly Toad of Toad Hall. But every so often they’re right, and ignoring them gets you killed.

Clay Christensen made a career documenting the corpses. Industry-leading companies that did what seemed sensible when a disruptive technology arrived. R&D budgets. Measured response. Reasonable people making reasonable decisions. All dead now.

The thing is: what if they’re both right? What if they’re both wrong? You’re operating under uncertainty either way.

On an individual level, you have both voices. Spreadsheet demon on one shoulder, enthusiast on the other. The instinct is to meet in the middle - hedge, experiment carefully, phase things in.

Right now, with AI, I’m coming down on the side that being extreme is the sensible path. The middle feels safe but might just mean you get the downsides of both. Too slow to seize opportunity. Too distracted to avoid the traps.

You kind of do just know sometimes. The hard part is trusting it.